Photo: Brandon Hartley
The world is warming up more quickly than hoped and without drastic action, global temperatures will have risen by 1.5 Celsius some 10 years earlier than expected, according to the sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which was published on Monday.
To reach the 1.5-degree Paris target, global greenhouse gas emissions need to be more than 40% lower by 2030 than in 2019, said the IPCC, which is made up of some of the world’s leading experts on climate change.
‘The decisions taken in the coming period will largely determine whether we meet the Paris goals,’ said Utrecht University professor Detlef van Vuuren, who is one of the authors of the report.
‘Without a substantial tightening of policy, this will be the last IPCC report in which reaching 1.5 degrees is considered a possibility. Even if this target can’t be met, we still need to make the maximum effort, because every 0.1 degree counts.’
The report highlights the way the impact of climate change is becoming more visible. In recent years, extreme precipitation, drought and heat waves have become more frequent. Sea levels have risen by 20 centimetres since 1900 and will continue to rise at a rate heavily determined by greenhouse gas emissions from now on.
In practice this means that extreme water levels on the Dutch coast, which now occur once a century, will become 10 to 50 times more frequent. ‘Dealing with climate change and the rise in sea levels is still possible but without rapid action, we will face a hopeless task,’ said Aimée Slangen, a researcher at the Dutch institute for sea research NIOZ.
The report argues that there is both a lack of ambition and a lack of action from countries which have pledged to meet the Paris targets. Every 0.1 degree on top of 1.5 degrees of warming increases the risk of weather extremes and the disruption of ecosystems, it warns.
“We have never been better equipped to solve the climate challenge – but we must move into warp speed #ClimateAction now.
We don’t have a moment to lose.”
– @antonioguterres on latest @IPCC_CH report. https://t.co/q1DpjemK49 pic.twitter.com/5WsFm4ieWA
— United Nations (@UN) March 20, 2023
In addition over three billion people live in areas considered particularly vulnerable to climate change and half the global population now experiences a shortage of water for part of the year. Weather extremes are also increasingly driving people in Africa, Asia, the Americas and the south Pacific to move elsewhere.
The Dutch government has set a target of a 49% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, and a 95% reduction by 2050.
Some 26% of the Netherlands is below sea level and a further 29% is susceptible to river flooding. The Dutch coast is protected by a complicated system of dykes, seawalls and sluices built after the devastating floods of 1953 which left over 1,800 people dead.
